Estimating number of distinct values. - Mailing list pgsql-hackers

Hello hackers,

I will be pleased if somebody (first of all Robert) can comment me 
"strange" results of distinct values estimation.

There is the following code in analyze.c:

             /*----------
              * Estimate the number of distinct values using the estimator
              * proposed by Haas and Stokes in IBM Research Report RJ 10025:
              *        n*d / (n - f1 + f1*n/N)
              * where f1 is the number of distinct values that occurred
              * exactly once in our sample of n rows (from a total of N),
              * and d is the total number of distinct values in the sample.
              * This is their Duj1 estimator; the other estimators they
              * recommend are considerably more complex, and are numerically
              * very unstable when n is much smaller than N.
              *
              * In this calculation, we consider only non-nulls. We used to
              * include rows with null values in the n and N counts, but 
that
              * leads to inaccurate answers in columns with many nulls, and
              * it's intuitively bogus anyway considering the desired 
result is
              * the number of distinct non-null values.
              *
              * Overwidth values are assumed to have been distinct.
              *----------
              */
             int            f1 = ndistinct - nmultiple + toowide_cnt;
             int            d = f1 + nmultiple;
             double        n = samplerows - null_cnt;
             double        N = totalrows * (1.0 - stats->stanullfrac);
             double        stadistinct;

             /* N == 0 shouldn't happen, but just in case ... */
             if (N > 0)
                 stadistinct = (n * d) / ((n - f1) + f1 * n / N);
             else
                 stadistinct = 0;


In my case there are no null values:

  totalrows = 48980014
  samplerows = 30000
  ndistinct = 29135
  nmultiple = 800
  null_cnt = 0
  stats->stanullfrac = 0
  toowide_cnt = 0

This formula gives:

  stadistinct = 503391.66267850093

"Naive" estimation of number of distinct values: d*N/n  gives 47567756 
which is much closer to the real number of distinct values and is almost 
100 times (!!!) larger than Duj1 estimator.

Real number of distinct value for this dataset is about 10 millions. For 
some reasons, sampling using random blocks and Vitter algorithm produces 
worser results than just examining first 30000 rows of the table: in 
this case number of distinct values is 6835 and d/n*N is 11 millions 
which is very close to real value of distinct rows. Certainly it can be 
result of data distribution in the particular table.

I have read the cited article. Looks like other estimators are really 
difficult to implement. But Duj1 result in this case really looks 
confusing. May be instead of sampling-based estimation use streaming 
based estimation, for example HyperLogLog algorithm already present in 
Postgres?