Re: [pgsql-advocacy] Oracle buys Innobase - Mailing list pgsql-general

On 10/11/2005 6:31 PM, Bruce Momjian wrote:

> Jim C. Nasby wrote:
>> Of course one flip-side to all this is that if Oracle does attack us it
>> actually lends credibility; it means they see PostgreSQL as a threat. At
>> this point that could do more good for us than harm, depending on how
>> exactly the attacked.
>
> Well, that was MySQL's reaction to it, but I think the harm far
> outweighs the good for them.  Its more like, "Oracle finds MySQL a
> threat, what is MySQL going to do now!"  We don't want that kind of
> outcome.  Also, there are ways of attacking that do not show Oracle as
> an agreesor, like hiring PostgreSQL developers.

 From the fact that there was first an Oracle announcement and then some
"calming words" from MySQL we can tell that this wasn't friendly. If it
would have been, they would have had a joint press release instead of
this big grin from Oracle and that clenched teeth smile from MySQL in
return. So I agree, they are in deep trouble.

Now the much I agree that we should be carefull and watch out, I don't
think we should be jumping to conclusions either. Nobody outside Oracle
knows right now what their real plan and their real target with that
acquisition is.

Don't forget that only a part, although a substantial part, of Oracles
revenue comes out of the database business. One possibility is that they
try to do birth control against a low-cost R/3 backend, which
undoubtedly would be very bad for their CRM and ERP business in several
ways. After failing to build any open source community, SAP had found
MySQL, who was willing to maintain the SAP-DB sourcecode for them. If
Oracle squishes MySQL now, SAP is back to square one on that project.
There are many R/3 installations out there that go well beyond 1/4
million dollars per year in DB license fees alone. So even if they can
only delay this development by two to three years, it might pay off
quite well.

And look at it, all Oracle would have to do is to be so open source
friendly that they make InnoDB GPL only. Can you imagine the confusion
in the MySQL fan club if Oracle releases the next GPL version of InnoDB
and MySQL AB announces that they ripped out InnoDB support and favor
something with half the feature set instead?


Jan

>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>>
>> On Tue, Oct 11, 2005 at 06:04:40PM -0400, Bruce Momjian wrote:
>> > We have entered a new phase in the possible attacks on PostgreSQL.
>> >
>> > The purchase of InnoDB clearly shows Oracle is ready to expend money to
>> > slow down competitive database technology.  Now that MySQL has been
>> > attacked, we should expect to be the next target.
>> >
>> > Let's assume Oracle is willing to spend 1% of their revenue or net
>> > income on attacking PostgreSQL.  Given this financial statement:
>> >
>> >     http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ORCL&annual
>> >
>> > that would be USD $20-100 million.  (The Oracle financial statement will
>> > eventually disclose the purchase price of InnoDB, and we can use that as
>> > a minimum amount they would be willing to spend.)
>> >
>> > Now, I think Oracle realizes that the database will eventually become a
>> > commodity based on their purchase of Peoplesoft and other application
>> > technology.  However, every financial period they delay that time is
>> > more profit for them, so it is a cost/benefit of how much it is worth to
>> > slow down PostgreSQL.  Obviously they thought the InnoDB purchase was
>> > worth it to slow down or control MySQL.  Our goal should be to make the
>> > cost of attacks higher than the benefit.
>> >
>> > Here are the three most likely attacks on our project:
>> >
>> > o  Hiring
>> >
>> > Oracle could hire a large portion of our paid or volunteer developers,
>> > thereby slowing down the project.  Individuals would probably be
>> > approach as "We like your work on PostgreSQL and would like your
>> > expertise in improving Oracle", but of course once hired what they did
>> > for Oracle would be unimportant.  What would be important is what they
>> > _don't_ do for PostgreSQL.
>> >
>> > o  Trademark
>> >
>> > Marc Fournier owns the PostgreSQL trademark and domain names.  He could
>> > be attacked, perhaps by hiring him to do a job, causing it to fail, then
>> > suing him to obtain the trademark, and therefore the right to own the
>> > domain names.  The trademark has not been enforced, and it would be hard
>> > to enforce at this stage, but I think it would be effective in gaining
>> > control of the domain names.
>> >
>> > o  Patents
>> >
>> > Most technology people agree the software patent system is broken, but
>> > it could be a potent weapon against us, though we have shown we can
>> > efficiently remove patent issue from our code.
>> >
>> >
>> > There is probably nothing Oracle can do to permanently harm us, but
>> > there are a variety of things they can do to temporarily slow us down,
>> > and it is likely a attempt will be made in the future.  There are also
>> > possible threats to PostgreSQL support companies, though they are
>> > somewhat independent of the project.
>> >
>> > --
>> >   Bruce Momjian                        |  http://candle.pha.pa.us
>> >   pgman@candle.pha.pa.us               |  (610) 359-1001
>> >   +  If your life is a hard drive,     |  13 Roberts Road
>> >   +  Christ can be your backup.        |  Newtown Square, Pennsylvania 19073
>> >
>> > ---------------------------(end of broadcast)---------------------------
>> > TIP 1: if posting/reading through Usenet, please send an appropriate
>> >        subscribe-nomail command to majordomo@postgresql.org so that your
>> >        message can get through to the mailing list cleanly
>> >
>>
>> --
>> Jim C. Nasby, Sr. Engineering Consultant      jnasby@pervasive.com
>> Pervasive Software      http://pervasive.com    work: 512-231-6117
>> vcard: http://jim.nasby.net/pervasive.vcf       cell: 512-569-9461
>>
>


--
#======================================================================#
# It's easier to get forgiveness for being wrong than for being right. #
# Let's break this rule - forgive me.                                  #
#================================================== JanWieck@Yahoo.com #